SELECTED ACM COMMENTARY / ACM'S HISTORY OF PRESCIENCE
Ackerman Capital Management employs a structured approach to portfolio management based on key academic insights into the capital markets. We also understand that investing is more than just science. While we avoid mainstream financial media, we value the thoughts and opinions of today’s most intelligent and insightful investors. We know that our investment models can be enhanced by a forward looking view and an understanding of how that may differ from consensus expectations. Below is a chronological record of some of our most important and prescient forecasts.
ACM Predicts the Crash in Technology and Internet Stocks
Technology and Internet stocks crashed in the following two years. The NASDAQ Composite fell 74.9% from the March 2000 highs to the October 2002 lows. The Inter@active Week Internet Index fell 90.2% during this period.
ACM's Response to 9/11
The S&P 500 rallied 19.3% from their September 21, 2000 lows through the end of the year. However, it then fell for the third consecutive year, losing 22.1% in 2002 in one of the worst years for stock investors in modern market history
ACM Calls the Bottom of 2000-2002 Bear Market
The S&P 500 recorded its bear market low that same month and went on to deliver a total return of more than 100% over the next five years.
ACM Predicts 2007-2008 Housing Bust, Recession, Financial Crisis, and Collapse in Stock Prices
The financial crisis of 2007-2009 is considered to have been the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression of the 1930’s. The S&P 500 declined nearly 43% from its October 2007 highs to its March 2009 lows. The crisis was triggered by a collapse in the subprime housing market which pushed major U.S. financial institutions and those around the world to the brink of collapse. Governments and central banks were forced to bail out many of these companies and had to respond with unprecedented monetary and fiscal stimulus. The Great Recession was later determined to have begun in December of 2007.
ACM Pinpoints Bottom of the Stock Market in the First Quarter of 2009
ACM Is Well Positioned for the 2011 Stock Correction and Plunge in Bond Yields
From July to September 2011, the S&P experience a peak to trough decline of 18.4%. The Bloomberg Commodity Index fell 22.3% peak to trough in 2011. The S&P 500 Basic Materials Index corrected 28.7%. Emerging market stocks fell 40.9% and emerging market debt declined 13.7%. Investment grade bonds, as measured by the Barclays Aggregate Bond Index, meanwhile, delivered a more than 9% gain in the second half of 2011.
ACM Adds Risk Exposure Near 2011 Market Lows
The S&P 500 bottomed on October 3, 2011, and rallied 15% through year end. The S&P went on to gain 16% in 2012.